“全面两孩”政策下育龄夫妇生育意愿及影响因素——基于深圳市福田区常住人口的研究

The Fertility Intention and Influence Factors of Childbearing Age Couples——Based on the Resident Population of Shenzhen in Futian District

本文利用深圳市福田区2016年"全面两孩"生育意愿调查数据,对政策目标人群的二孩生育意愿及影响因素进行了研究,显示目标人群仅36.44%有明确二孩生育意愿,"全面两孩"政策对社会生育力的实际提升效果可能远低于理论测算值。生育计划安排集中在最近3年,将形成人口出生高峰。妇女年龄大、经济负担及影响夫妻事业发展等原因成为降低二孩生育意愿的显著性影响因素;而理想子女数多、第一孩为女孩及健康状况好成为提高二孩生育意愿的显著性影响因素。

In this paper both the fertility intention and the influence factors of the universal two-child policy target population were studied, Based on the survey data of Futian district resident population in Shenzhen. The target population only 36.44% have a clear wishes of second child, The policy actual promotion effect on social fertility may be much lower than the theoretical calculation value. Birth planning arrangements concentrated in three years in the future, will form a birth peak. Women＇s age, economic burden and the impact of career development of husband and wife and other reasons became the significant factors to reduce the fertility intention of second children. The desired childbearing number, the first child is a girl and first child with good health has become the significant factors that influence the second child will.