住区密度与家庭能耗碳排放相关性研究——以上海曹杨新村为例

CORRELATION BETWEEN RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND CARBON EMISSIONS CAUSED BY HOUSEHOLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION: A CASE STUDY ON CAOYANG XINCUN, SHANGHAI

住区空间形态及模式类型划分与密度特征相关,家庭能耗产生的空间碳排放与密度分布有着逻辑对应关系。国内外相关研究表明,家庭特征、住房特征和能耗行为等因素对家庭生活能耗有着显著的影响,而有关密度与家庭能耗碳排放之间的相关研究尚需更多实证案例。本文以上海曹杨新村作为研究对象,通过调研问卷数据来估算54个小区样本的家庭能耗人均碳排放值,并对住区密度指标与碳排放进行相关性研究。从回归分析结果看,曹杨新村的家庭能耗消费与家庭特征、住房特征等因素存在着显著的线性关系,且家庭人口规模具有主导作用。在密度指标与碳排放相关性研究中,家庭能耗碳排放在物质密度与人口密度指标中分别具有区段波动性特征,通过进一步分析密度与碳排放影响变量之间的非线性逻辑对应关系,研究得出不同密度区段条件下的住区家庭能耗碳排放差异是居民家庭人口规模、收入水平等相关社会因素叠合作用造成的。因此,判断住区是否"低碳"首先当明确密度区段的选择条件,结合本国国情、地区发展条件、家庭社会经济特征等因素来引导未来住区发展模式。

The spatial form of residential areas and the classification of residential pattern are closely related to the characteristics of density, and the carbon emissions caused by household energy consumption and density distribution are correlated with each other logically in space. The related studies in China and abroad prove that factors, such as household characteristics, housing characteristics, and energy consumption behavior, have significant impacts on household energy consumption, whilemore empirical cases are needed to study the correlation betweendensityand carbon emissions. Taking Caoyang Xincun, Shanghai as the empirical research object, this paper, using questionnaire data, estimates the percapita carbon emissions in 54 community samples, and studies the correlation between residential density and carbon emissions caused by household energy consumption. From the results of regression analysis, the paper finds that there is a significant linear relationship between the household energy consumption in Caoyang Xincun and variable factors such as household characteristics and housing characteristics, and particularly the factor of household population size plays a leading role. Meanwhile, the carbon emission curve of household energy consumption shows the characteristics of sectional fluctuation in terms of substance density and population density respectively. By further analyzing the nonlinear logic corresponding relationship between density and influencing factors of carbon emissions, the paper draws the conclusion that the carbon emission differences in different density sections are caused by the superimposition of social factors such as population size and income level of households. As a result, to judge whether a residential area is ＂low carbon＂, it should first make clear the selection criteria for density section, so as to guide the future development pattern of residential areas in line with national conditions, regional development conditions, household social and economic characteristics, and other influencing factors.