财政支出、空间溢出效应与服务业增长——基于中心城市数据的空间杜宾模型分析

Fiscal Expenditures, Spatial Spillover Effect and Services Growth: The Analysis of Spatial Durbin Model Based on Central City Data

中国目前中心城市服务业发展滞后问题比较突出,而地方财政支出不仅通过直接和间接机制影响本地服务业增长,还通过空间溢出效应影响邻近地区服务业增长。文章利用中心城市层面面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型实证检验了地方财政支出的本地服务业增长效应和对邻近城市服务业增长的空间溢出效应。结果显示:财政总支出、教育支出、科技支出和公共交通支出对本地服务业增长都产生正效应,而对其他城市服务业增长的空间溢出效应存在显著差异,财政总支出和教育支出的空间溢出效应为正,科技支出和公共交通支出的空间溢出效应为负;分地区的研究发现,从促进服务业全局发展角度,东部城市应加大科技支出,中部城市应优先完善基础设施,西部城市应首要增加教育支出。总之,为了实现我国服务业的整体发展、优化布局,需要在中心城市层面完善支持服务业发展的财政支出政策,动态优化财政支出结构,并健全财政转移支付制度和区域财政政策协调机制。

Nowadays the problems of backward development in central cities＇ services are priority to the infrastructure expenditure, and the western cities should increase education spending first. In short, in order to promote the overall development and optimizing layout of service industries in China, governments of central cities need to improve the fiscal expenditure policy supporting the development of services, dynamically optimize the fiscal expenditure structure, and improve the system of financial transfer payment and the regional fiscal policy coordination mechanisms.