伊朗议会政治嬗变的历史透视

A Historical Review on Iran's Parliamentary Politics Development

伊朗议会政治的显著特点是形式重于内容,议会选举是伊朗政坛派系斗争的风向标,围绕议会选举展开的派系斗争清晰地反映了伊朗政治的发展历程。基于领袖和总统在伊朗权力架构中的作用和地位差异,1989年以来议会选举中关于总统阵营与领袖阵营的票箱对决实际上是一个假问题,本质上是统治集团内部不同派别的路线斗争。2012年以来,各派势力就后哈梅内伊时代的权力布局展开了激烈争夺,表面上看是保守派内部上层利益与底层利益的碰撞,是不同派系间的政治博弈,更深层次的问题则是伊斯兰政权下一步发展"依靠谁、服务谁"的路径选择角力。

Iran's parliamentary politics has more importance in its form than its content. Its parliamentary elections mainly serve as weathervanes of Iran's political factions struggle; the factional strife focusing on the parliamentary elections has been clearly reflecting Iran's political development.Because of the different roles and status of the Supreme Leader and president in Iran's power structure,the rival of parliamentary election between the presidential camp and the leaders is simply a problem superficially,the essence of which is the struggle between two lines of different factions within the Iranian ruling hierarchy. All factions have already started intense competition on power layout during the post-Khamenei era. The surface sense of their struggle is about the conflict of interests between upperstratum and lower-stratum in conservatives,but the deeper sense is about the choice of Iran's development path,and questions that they should rely on and serve.