装备可靠性指标鉴定内涵研究

Research on Equipment Reliability Index Qualification Connotation

针对可靠性鉴定过程中存在指标考核对象和考核时机不统一的争议,通过分析指标基础定义,提出了工程背景和统计理论相结合的解决思路。论述了国内外可靠性指标发展历程,利用对比分析的方法,说明了产生争议的工程原因;对可靠性指标鉴定方法进行了分析,结合区间估计方法,说明了假设检验代表的统计内涵和工程内涵,明确了将最低可接受值作为指标考核对象;结合装备可靠性增长过程,采取定性分析的方法,提出了最低可接受值在定型阶段、规定值在作战试验阶段分阶段考核的建议。

For disputes on index assessment object and time in the reliability qualification process, based on analyzing the index definition, the solution by means of combining engineering background and statistical theory is provided.Firstly, it expounds the development history of reliability index home and abroad, and explains the causes that arouse the controversy from the aspect of engineering by making contrasts and comparisons.Secondly, it analyzes the reliability index qualification methods, demonstrates the statistical connotation and engineering connotation with interval estimation, and makes it clear that minimum acceptable values are used as index assessment objects.Finally, in combination with the equipment reliability growth process, the suggestion of multi-stage assessment is proposed that minimum acceptable values be assessed in approval stage and the specified values be assessed in operational test stage.