铁路易燃易爆品运输事故泄漏风险精细度量模型研究

Fine Risk Assessment Model for Combustible and Explosive Goods Transported by Railway

为准确度量铁路易燃易爆品运输事故的人员危害和财产损失,在传统双指标?(事故泄漏率和事故泄漏后果)?风险度量模型的基础上,结合易燃易爆品事故多为火灾爆炸事故的特点,建立适用于铁路易燃易爆品运输的风险精细度量模型。其中,事故泄漏率综合考虑包装破损率及易燃易爆品泄漏率,并采用统计学方法计算得出事故发生率,采用?logistic?回归分析法得出易燃易爆品包装破损概率;事故泄漏后果综合考虑人员伤亡和财产损失,并将人员伤亡和财产损失进行统一量纲化,同时,采用不同模型确定出人员伤亡影响区域和财产损失影响区域,进而量化出事故泄漏后果。该风险度量模型为易燃易爆品运输风险管理提供了理论基础,为选择易燃易爆品运输路径提供参考。

In order to accurately evaluate the casualties and property losses of combustible and explosive goods transported by railway,on the basis of the traditional double index（probability of accident release and consequence of accident release） risk evaluation model,and combined with the characteristic of the combustible and explosive goods accidents that are mostly fire and explosion accidents,a fine risk assessment model for combustible and explosive goods transported by railway is constructed.In the calculation of probability of accident release,packing damage rate and leakage rate of combustible and explosive goods are considered.For evaluation of the consequence of accident release,we take into account casualties and property losses with unified dimension method.The fine risk assessment model lays a theoretical foundation for the whole process risk management of flammable and explosive goods transportation,and provides a practical guide for the choice of combustible and explosive goods transport path.