基于改进MD模型的城市交通出行方式划分预测方法

Urban traffic modal splitting based on improved MD forecast model

基于MD模型预测原理,结合城市居民出行特征,综合考虑旅客出行时间、出行费用对旅客出行方式选择的影响,对传统MD模型中包含的出行牺牲量计算公式进行了改进,求得了各交通方式的安全性、舒适性、方便性量化值,并得到了基于MD模型的城市交通出行方式划分预测模型.模型可用于预测新增交通方式的诱增交通量与划分结构,分析预测年公交车、地铁费用变量与出行方式划分结构之间的规律.最后结合西安市的调查实例,验证了该预测方法的可行性.研究结论可进一步丰富和完善城市交通出行方式划分预测理论.

Based on the principle of MD forecast model, combined with resident travel Characteristics in urban, fullyconsidered passenger＇s travel time. travel cost. safety, comfort and convenience which influence passengerts trafficmode choice, improved the calculation formula for travel sacrificial in traditional MD forecast model, and obtained aprediction model of travel mode choice in urban based on MD forecast model. Model can be used to predict theinduced traffic of new type transport facility and partition structure, analysis the change law of expense variable withpartition structure of travel modal. Finally, combined with the investigation of Xitan, the feasibility of the methodwas verified. Research conclusions may further enrich and improve the urban traffic modal splitting theory.