基于修正shapley值的PPP项目风险分担模型研究

Research on the Risk Allocation Model of PPP Project Based on Modified Shapley Value

合理的风险分担是保证PPP项目顺利实施的关键因素之一,已有的风险分担方法在解决PPP项目风险分担比例的问题上尚显不足。在分析PPP模式下风险分担原则的基础上,划分出10个二级指标,并以此对传统的shapley值法进行修正,建立一个基于修正shapley值的PPP项目风险分担模型,并以哈尔滨市综合管廊项目为例,得出不可抗力的政府方与私人方风险分担比例为24.87%、75.13%。

Reasonable risk allocation is a key factor to ensure that PPP projects implement smoothly,the existing risk sharing method in resolving the proportion of risk allocation in PPP projects is still insufficient. On the basis of analysis the principle of risk allocation of PPP model,the paper divides 10 secondary indicators to modify the traditional shapley value,establishes a risk allocation model of PPP projects based on modified shapley value. Taking Harbin pipe gallery project as an example,concludes that force majeure risk allocation ratio of the government and the private side is 24.87% and 75.13%.