基于降水距平百分比指标的哈尔滨市旱情分析

Analysis of Droughts in Harbin City Based on Precipitation Anomaly Percentage Index

黑龙江省是我国耕地面积最大的重要商品粮生产基地,干旱的发生严重影响了其粮食产量。然而对其研究相对较少,干旱指数的适用尚不确定。以哈尔滨市为例,基于1951-2014年的长序列降水数据,分析了降水的年内分布情况,并利用降水距平百分比指标分析了不同尺度下干旱的发生情况。结果表明,该指标在哈尔滨市适用性较好,其年代旱情呈现20世纪70年代>21世纪>20世纪60年代>20世纪90年代>20世纪50年代、80年代;四季易发生干旱的顺序为冬、春、秋、夏季;4、8、11月易发生特大、中度、轻度干旱,特大干旱在年内发生的概率极不稳定,轻、中度干旱发生的概率较大。

The drought occurrence has greatly reduced the grain yield of Heilongjiang Province with the commodity grain production base of the largest agricultural acreage in China. However, the research on drought was relatively not enough with the uncertainty of application of drought index. Taking Harbin city as an example, the year distribution of precipitation was analyzed by using the long series precipitation data from 1951 to 2014, and the occurrence of drought at different scales was analyzed by using the precipitation anomaly percentage index. The results showed that this index was suitable for Harbin City, and the severity of drought was presented in the descending order of 1970s, 21 century, 1960s, 1990s, 1950s and 1980s. The order of drought occurrence was winter, spring, autumn, summer. The severe, moderate and mild droughts were easy to occur in Harbin city at April, August and November, respectively. While the probability of severe drought was unstable, the mild and moderate droughts had a great probability.