中国出口信用保险对贸易出口影响的区域差异研究

Study on the Influence of Chinese Export Credit Insurance on Export Trading in Different Economic Regions

出口信用保险是国家为推动本国出口贸易、保障出口企业收汇安全的政策性保险业务。通过利用2002年到2014年全国暨八大经济区出口总额与同期出口信用保险承保保额以及国内(区域)生产总值(GDP)、人均可支配收入、实际FDI和进口贸易额、居民消费价格指数(CPI)、政治风险和汇率风险等各项经济指标,以时间序列模型和LSDV法估计双向固定效应模型对我国出口信用保险出口促进作用进行检验,结果表明:无论是国家层面还是区域层面,出口信用保险都对出口具有显著促进作用;但在不同区域间存在显著差异,东南部沿海地区出口信用保险的出口促进作用显著高于其他经济区,这为我国政府协调各大经济区全面推进出口信用保险制度落实和发展提供了基础。

The export credit insurance is a public-policy-oriented insurance business carried out by the government in order to promote export trade.In this paper,we estimate a Time Series Model and a Fixed Effect Regression LSDV Model of export credit insurance and gross export in China and eight economic regions using data of gross export and other economic indicators like GDP,per capita disposable income,the actual FDI,imports,political risks and exchange rate risk from 2002 to 2014.We reach the conclusion that gross export in nation and eight economic regions can be both promoted significantly by using the export credit insurance,however,there is heterogeneity in different economic regions,and this impact of southeast coastal areas is significantly higher than other economic regions.This provides a basis for making policy to harmonize the development of export credit insurance in the eight economic regions and strengthen the construction of export credit insurance policy.