能值-生态足迹模型支持的甘肃藏族高寒牧区可持续研究

Sustainability of Tibetan alpine pastoral region in Gansu Province based on emergy-ecological footprint

运用改进的能值生态足迹模型,对2005-2013年甘肃藏族高寒牧区可持续发展状态进行了定量分析.改进的模型运用区域能值密度计算生态承载力和生态足迹,不仅克服了传统生态足迹模型的缺陷,而且能够更真实地反映研究区生态系统的供给能力和人类对资源的消耗状况.结果表明:9 a间玛曲县和碌曲县处于可持续发展状态,生态承载力还能够支撑生态足迹的增长;夏河县处于不可持续发展状态,生态足迹增长与生态承载力不平衡,不可持续性整体呈现增强的趋势;卓尼县处于不可持续发展状态,但2010年之后有好转的趋势;合作市和天祝县处于严重不可持续发展状态,不可持续性呈现不断增强的趋势.如何改善区域发展状态已经变得尤为迫切.结合能值密度和万元GDP生态足迹等指标,对各牧区可持续发展策略进行了有益探讨.

Based on the emergy theory, the modified emergy ecological footprint method was used to ana- lyze the sustainable developing status of Tibetan alpine pastoral regions in Gansu Province from 2005 to 2013. At the same time, the ecological carrying capacity and ecological footprint were calculated by re- gional emergy density. This method not only can overcome the shortcomings of the traditional ecological footprint model, but also can truly reflect the supply capacity of the ecosystem and human resource con- sumption situation of these areas. The study results indicated that Maqu and Luqu were in sustainable de- velopment status during the nine years investigated, with the ecological carrying capacity being capable of supporting the growth of ecological footprint. Xiahe was in an unsustainable status during the nine years, with the growth of ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity being unbalanced. And theunsustainability of Xiahe showed an increasing trend. Zhuoni was in an unsustainable status during the same period but showed a trend of improvement after 2010. Hezuo and Tianzhu were in an even more se- rious situation, with the unsustainability being increased. How to improve regional development status has become particularly urgent for such places. Combined with the analysis of energy density and ecologi- cal footprint of ten thousand yuan GDP, the sustainable development of the various pastoral was also dis- cussed and, finally, reasonable recommendations are provided here for improving the sustainable develop- ment of those alpine pastoral regions in Gansu Province.