杜特尔特“疏美亲中”政策评析：国家利益与个人偏好

An Analysis of Duterte's “Distancing from the U. S.,Moving Closer to China”Policy: National Interests and Personal Preference

菲律宾总统杜特尔特上任后对前任政府联合美国对中国进行制衡的外交政策进行了大幅调整。从对美国的"一边倒"到当前"疏美亲中"政策,背后反映的是杜特尔特政府回归传统的"平衡外交"策略,试图修复因"中菲南海仲裁案"而陷入低谷的中菲关系的考量。同时,响应中方"一带一路"倡议,吸引对菲律宾的投资,改善两国经贸关系不仅成为杜特尔特政府对华外交的一项重要诉求,也关系到其国家重大经济利益的实现。美国政府对菲律宾内政和主权事务的干涉以及杜特尔特个人的"反美主义"倾向造成了当前美菲关系的倒退。未来,中菲关系的发展仍将长期受到南海问题,美日对菲政治、军事影响因素的制约。

P resident Duterte of the P hilippines has made dramatic changes from the previous administration’s strategy of allying with the U.S.in constraining China after he came into power.From'leaning to one side'towards the U.S.to'Distancing from the U.S.,Moving Closer to China',the change of policy indicates the Duterte administration’s return to the tradition of'equal-balance'policy and the attempt of repairing a worsening SinoFilipino relationship because of the'South China Sea Arbitration case'.Meanwhile,in response to China’s B&R initiative,attracting investment and improving trade relations with China not only becomes a goal to the Duterte adminstration’s China policy,but also affects the national interests of the P hilippines.U.S.interference in the domestic policy and national sovereignty of the P hilippines,and to Duterte’s anti-American sentiment,lead to the retrogression of U.S.-P hilippines relations.In the future,the development of a healthy Sino-Filipino relationship will be affected by the disputes in the South China Sea,and U.S.and Japanese military and political influences on the Philippines.