美洲白银输入是否抬升了江南的米价?——来自清代松江府的经验证据

Does American Silver Inflow Raise the Rice Price in South Regions of the Yangtze River? Empirical Evidence from the Songjiang Prefecture in Qing China

本文从美洲白银流入存量、银铜比价两个维度,检验了美洲白银输入对松江府175年间米价的影响。研究发现,白银输入存量显著抬高了大米平均价格水平,却也抑制了大米价格的波动幅度,这证明了美洲白银输入与中国物价革命的经典假说;但银铜比价这种半市场化的内部汇率体制却在一定程度上缓解了米价水平的上升,并助推了米价的波动幅度。这意味着,中国银铜双本位的内部汇率体制发挥了应对国外经济冲击的正面作用,但同时也对国内物价水平的波动产生了推波助澜的作用,因为它本身就是市场力量和非市场力量综合作用的结果。

From two aspects such as accumulated stock of American silver inflow and silver-copper exchange rate, this paper tests the impact of American silver inflow on the rice price level in Songjiang prefecture during 175 years in the Qing dynasty. It finds that the stock of silver inflow raised the rice price level significantly, however kept down the fluctuation of rice price, which verified the classical hypothesis of American silver inflow and the price revolution in China. However, the impact of this domestic, semi- marketized silver-copper exchange rate alleviated the rice price level to some extent and pushed up the price fluctuation level. This finding indicates that this bi-mentalism system has two sides impact, positive in terms of slowing clown the external economic and finance shock, and negative in terms of raising the price fluctuation level since it was the result of many factors both external and internal, market or non-market.