“大跃进”危机的触发:“浮夸风”与急功近利

The Trigger of Great Leap Forward Crisis:Exaggeration and Impatience

本文旨在从制度与发展策略的角度,分析"大跃进"危机的触发机制,解释"大跃进"前期中国经济呈现的一系列典型事实。依据历史资料,本文在政治集权和计划经济背景下,构建了一个两部门增长模型。研究发现:(1)由于农业"浮夸风"和工业化急功近利的影响,中央决策者采用了过高的工农业投资路径、农业资源转移路径和农民消费路径;(2)过高消费路径与农村余粮间的不匹配触发了饥荒;(3)赶超战略失败的直接原因是农业产出和生产率未如预期增加。数值模拟表明,模型结果合理地解释了"大跃进"前期的典型事实。

From an institutional and development strategy perspective, this paper analyses the triggering mechanism of the Great Leap Crisis, and explained some typical facts of China＇s economy. Based on historic files, under polarized politics and planning economy, I established a dynamic two-sector model. And the research suggests： （1） due to agriculture exaggeration and industrialization impatience, the central policy maker adopt exorbitant invest paths in both sectors, agricultural resource transfer paths and peasants＇ consumption path ; （2） the mismatching of the high consumption path and low rural food store triggered the famine; （3） the failure of catching-up can be directly attributed to the failure of agriculture. Numerical simulation confirms the model reasonably interpret the typical facts in the early period of the Great Leap.