蚌埠地区妇女乳腺癌风险评估模型的初步研究

Preliminary study on the risk assessment model of breast cancer in Bengbu

目的:筛选蚌埠地区妇女患乳腺癌的危险因素,初步建立符合蚌埠地区的乳腺癌风险评估模型,探讨乳腺癌低、中、高风险的分界点,并用模型评估蚌埠地区女性具备特定危险因素情况下患乳腺癌的概率。方法:采用logistic回归筛选乳腺癌的危险因素,建立乳腺癌风险评估模型。采用Fisher判别分析对模型进行评价;通过ROC曲线下面积观察模型效能,并利用ROC曲线寻找乳腺癌低、中、高风险的截断值。结果:乳腺癌人群的主要危险因素包括家庭经济收入状况、食用豆制品、负性情绪排解、工作强度和乳腺癌筛检(P<0.05~P<0.01)。通过风险评估模型预测低、中、高危人群,以预测概率值P≤0.49为低风险性人群,P≥0.51为高风险性人群,0.49<P<0.51为中风险性人群。结论:建立的模型可评估蚌埠地区女性具备特定危险因素情况下患乳腺癌的风险,可为建立筛查标准提供一定依据。

Objective：To screen the risk factors of breast cancer in Bengbu women,establish the risk assessment model of breast cancer,investigate the cut-off points of low,medium and high risk,and assess the probability of breast cancer in women with specific risk factor.Methods：The risk factors of breast cancer were screened by logistic regression,and which was used to establish the risk assessment model of breast cancer.The risk model was evaluated using Fisher.The model performance was examined by the area under the ROC curve,and the appropriate low,medium and high risk cut-off points were distinguished by the ROC curve.Results：The family economy condition,eating bean product,releasing negative emotion,work intensity and screening breast cancer were the main risk factors of breast cancer（P〈0.05 to P〈0.01）.The risk model showed that the women with P≤0.49,0.49〈P〈0.51 and P≥0.51 were low,medium and high risk populations,respectively.Conclusions：The model can assess the probability of breast cancer in Bengbu women with specific risk factor,and provide certain basis in establishing the screening criteria.