对人民币汇率分析和预测

Analysis and Forecast of RMB'S Exchange Rate

本文采用世界银行提供的世界各国发展数据，通过对世界各国偏差系数分析．指出1994年以前的人民币大幅度贬值是计划经济的产物。1994年以后的人民币升值是人民币价值规律所决定的。并认为稳中有升将是人民币的长期趋势，最后建立了一个人民币预测模型。

This paper firsl analyses the data Which are provided by The World Bank. The comparisons ofexchange rates and purchasing powers between countries show that RMB ’S appeciation is determined by RMB’ S value . RMB will continue appeciation in the long run. Then we set up a forecasting model of RMB’S exchange rate.