中美俄三角关系演变的内在机理与现实

Donald Trump's Winning of Presidency and Big Power Interactions

特朗普上台引起人们对中美俄大三角关系走向的关切。本文从大国结构性矛盾内在机理入手,提出考察国家结构性矛盾的两个维度:深度和烈度,并根据矛盾可改变的难易程度,将国家结构性矛盾分为四个层次,以此分析美俄结构性矛盾和中美结构性矛盾,得出美俄结构性矛盾大于中美结构性矛盾的结论。在此基础上,根据对影响中美俄三角关系格局的两个主要因素——世界战略格局和中美俄国家战略的分析,提出特朗普上台后中美俄三角关系基本格局不会改变。针对中美关系,从三个层面分析提出特朗普上台后的中美关系机遇大于挑战。针对中俄关系,从国家战略安全、世界格局和秩序及国家发展战略三个角度,阐述中俄战略协作的意义。

Donald Trump's winning of the US presidency has shifted the global attention to theinteraction among the three powers of China, Russia and the US. This article analyzes theinherent mechanism of the structural conflicts among big powers and examines the differencesbetween the US and Russia and between China and the US before coming to the conclusion that the US and Russia have wider differences than the US and China. It argues that Trump'swinning of the US presidency will not alter the fundamental landscape of China-US-Russiarelations and, although they face challenges, China and the US will have more opportunities toimprove their relations. The article also analyzes the importance of Sino-Russian strategiccooperation.