地理距离影响民间借贷违约风险的实证研究

Empirical study on geographic distance affecting default risk of private loans

随着民间借贷活动范围扩大,纠纷明显增加,民间借贷风险受到广泛关注。通过构建多元线性回归模型,利用240个民间借贷纠纷案件的调查数据,探讨了地理距离对民间借贷违约风险的影响。研究结果表明,地理距离显著增加民间借贷违约风险:地理距离对月利率2%以下借贷的违约风险影响程度高于月利率2%及以上的借贷,对本金100万元以下借贷的违约风险影响程度高于本金100万元及以上的借贷。建议鼓励和发展近距离或依托熟人关系的民间借贷,建立依托地缘、血缘或亲缘等关系的借贷监督和社会惩罚机制。

With the expansion of activity scope in private lending,private lending disputes have increased significantly in recent years,the risk of private loans is drawing worldwide attention. Using multiple linear regression models,this paper makes use of survey data of 240 private lending disputes and firstly explores the impact of geographic distance on the default risk of private lending. The results show that geographic distance significantly increases the default risk of private lending. Hence,this paper further conducts the significant tests on the sample data collecting from the segments of monthly interest rate and principle and finds that the impact of geographic distance on the default risk of private lending of monthly interest rate below 2% is greater than that private lending of monthly interest rate equal to or above 2%. The impact of geographic distance on the default risk of private lending of principle less than 1 million RMB is greater than that private lending of principle equal to or above 1million RMB. Finally,this paper puts forward the main policies to encourage and develop private lending at close quarters or from close acquaintance and establish a loan supervision and social punishment mechanism based on geographical,blood relationship or kinship.