城镇化进程中安徽省碳排放驱动因素分析

Analysis on Driving Factors of Carbon Emission in Anhui Province during the Process of Urbanization

以原煤、焦炭、原油等7种能源的数据为依据,测算了安徽省1995-2015年的碳排放量,结果显示安徽省碳排放量呈现逐年增长趋势。基于STIRPAT模型,利用因子分析方法探究了安徽省碳排放的驱动因素。结果表明:建成区面积的扩大和产业结构是引起碳排放增加的主要原因,城市人口比重、人均GDP、能源结构、交通工具数也正向影响碳排放,唯有能源强度的提高有益于抑制碳排放。据此,提出了减缓碳排放增加速度的措施。

By taking the data of seven energies of coal, coke, crude oil, etc. as bases, the amount of carbon emis-sion in Anhui Province from 1995 to 2015 is measured, the results show that the amount of carbon emission increa-ses year by year. On the basis of STIRPAT model, the driving factors of carbon emission in Anhui Province are ex-plored by factor analysis. The results show that the expansion of the built-up area and the industrial structure are the main reasons for the increase of carbon emission. The proportion of urban population, per capita GDP, energy structure and the number of vehicles also positively affect the carbon emission. Only the improvement of energy in-tensity is beneficial to the inhibition of carbon emission. Finally, this paper puts forward measures to delay the in-creasing speed of carbon emission.