税收增长:是经济效应,抑或是货币效应

Tax Revenue Growth:Whether the Economic Effect or the Monetary Effect?

本文利用我国2004-2014年省级面板数据,采用动态差异——差异模型和系统广义矩估计方法(SYS-GMM),为我国税收的高速增长提供经济、货币层面上的解释。研究结果表明:货币政策的宽松与否,对税收增长有极大的影响,在货币政策宽松时期,货币政策对税收增长的促进作用更为显著,在货币政策紧缩时期,货币政策会抑制税收增长。通过对比系数大小发现,对于税收总收入,经济增长速度与人均GDP两个变量影响更大;对于流转税收入,经济增长速度与信贷规模两个变量的影响更大;对于所得税收入,人均GDP与信贷规模两个变量的影响更大。

This paper provides economic and monetary explanations for the rapid growth of China＇s tax revenue based on the dynamic difference-difference model and the system generalized moment estimation method （SYS-GMM）. The paper argues that the easing of monetary policy has a great influence on the tax revenue. Easing monetary policy may promote tax revenue growth, while tightening monetary policy may inhibit tax revenue growth. According to the size of the comparison coefficient, the paper finds that the economic growth rate and the GDP per capita have a greater impact on the total tax revenue, the economic growth rate and the credit size have a greater impact on the turnover tax revenue, and the GDP per capita and the credit size have a greater impact on income tax.