城市新区用地规模预测方法:基于空间扩张视角

The land scale forecast method of the new urban district in the spatial expansion

针对城市新区发展规划脱离建设实际的状况,从城市空间扩张的视角对城市新区建设用地规模的预测方法进行研究。通过定性分析、定量评价与实证研究相结合的方法,提出一种城市新区建设用地规模预测的理论计算模型。首先,通过传统的预测方法对城市用地规模总量进行预测;其次,建立城市新区发展潜力评价模型,对城市新区发展潜力进行评价;再次,在明确自组织和他组织比例的基础上,提出目标新区建设用地规模的计算公式;最后,通过土地存量、开发强度等要素的修正,综合确定目标新区的用地规模。结合渭南经济技术开发区的实证研究,认为城市规划在城市空间资源合理配置和安排的过程中,对于土地资源浪费起到了推波助澜的作用,在一定程度上是造成城市新区面积过大效益低下的一个原因。

The problems of breaking away from the reality exist in the establishment of new urban district plan- ning. The land scale forecast formula of new urban district is studied from the perspective of the urban spatial expansion, and put forward on the basis of qualitative analysis, quantitative evaluation and empirical research. First, the total land size of mother city is predicted by using the traditional forecasting methods ; Secondly, the development potential evaluation model is established to evaluate the new urban districts of the city; Third, the land scale forecast formula is put forward on the basis of the proportions between self-organization and hetero- organization; Finally, the land scale of the new district is modified by factors of land inventory, develop strength etc. It is considered that urban planning has played an important role in the waste of land resources and spatial inefficient with configuration and arrangement of urban resources.