中国货币政策调控效率与政策工具最优选择——基于DSGE模型的分析

Efficiency of China's Monetary Policy and the Optimal Selection of Monetary Instruments:Based on DSGE Model

本文通过构建DSGE模型,采用贝叶斯方法对中国货币政策反应函数进行估计,并结合数量型与价格型调控工具的动态模拟分析和调控效率数值分析以系统考察不同类型货币政策工具面临经济冲击时的调控效率,最后据此遴选出最优政策工具。研究结论认为:价格型货币政策框架较数量型能更有效地吸收总需求和总供给冲击带来的影响,引致经济均衡偏离程度最小;价格型货币政策框架下外生冲击引致的宏观经济波动较小,经济偏离的稳态收敛速度也明显快于数量型;无论是面临总需求冲击抑或总供给冲击,价格型工具的货币调控效率均明显高于数量型工具。为此,本文认为"十三五规划"关于推进货币政策从以数量型调控为主向以价格型调控为主转型的战略具有可行性和必要性,未来央行应强化价格型工具调控;同时,央行可适当将提高宏观调控效率作为今后货币政策调控的基本要求和政策取向。

This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,estimates the Chinese monetary policy function by using Bayesian parameter estimation,systematically investigates the efficiency of different monetary policy tools in the face of economic shocks by combing dynamic simulation analysis and numerical analysis of regulation efficiency based on quantity rule and price rule regulation tool,and finally selects the optimal policy tool.The results show that price-based monetary policy can more effectively accommodate the impact of the aggregate demand and aggregate supply shock than quantitative monetary policy framework,which causes the minimum degree of economic equilibrium deviation.Under the framework of price-based monetary policy,exogenous shocks caused less volatile,and convergence speed of deviation from steady is faster.The efficiency of price-based monetary policy is better than the quantitative tools under aggregate demand shock or aggregate supply shock.During the process of monetary policy transform,this paper argues that the 13 th Five-Year Plan strategy proposing the direction of monetary policy shifting from quantitative tools to price instruments has feasibility and necessity;at the same time,central bank can make improving the efficiency of macro-economic regulation as orientation of the policy.