中国城镇化进程对碳强度的影响研究——基于脱钩指数与关联规则分析

Study on the Influence of the Carbon Intensity of China's Urbanization Process——Analyses Based on the Decoupling Index and Association Rules

文章以我国2003—2014年30个省级面板数据为研究样本,考察了各省份城镇化水平及其碳强度之间的脱钩关系和关联规则。首先,对城镇化水平与碳强度进行测度,并分析城镇化水平与碳强度之间的区域特征。其次,采用Tapio脱钩指数和追赶脱钩指数模型分析二者之间的动态演化轨迹,结果表明我国城镇化水平上升的同时碳强度不断下降,大部分省份的碳强度下降幅度大于城镇化水平增长幅度,并且追赶省份与模范省份的城镇化水平和碳强度的差距在不断缩小。最后,采用关联规则分析各省份状态转移结果,结果显示各省份城镇化水平与碳强度之间的关系向更优状态转移。

This paper investigates the decoupling relationship and association rules between urbanization and its carbon intensity of provinces and cities according to the 30 provincial panel data of 2003-2014 years as research sample.Firstly,this paper measures the urbanization level and carbon intensity and then analyzes characteristics between urbanization level and carbon intensity.Secondly,the paper analyzes the dynamic evolution path of the urbanization level and carbon intensity by using the Tapio decoupling index and the chased decoupling index model.The results show that our country urbanization level rises with the decline of carbon intensity,the decreased rate of carbon intensity is greater than the growth rate of urbanization in most provinces,and the gap between pursued province and model province'urbanization level and carbon intensity is narrowing.Finally,we use the association rules to analyze provinces state transition,the result shows that the relationship between province urbanization level and the carbon intensity shifts to better state.