全面二孩政策背景下云南省人力资源供需预测及平衡策略

Supply-demand forecast of Yunnan's human resources and its balanced strategy against the background of “universal two-child policy”

采用分要素人口预测方法预测"全面二孩"政策背景下云南省2016~2025年人力资源供给,通过时间序列预测模型预测云南省2016~2025年人力资源需求,得出"全面二孩"政策背景下云南省2016~2025年人力资源供需均衡情况。结合云南省少数民族人力资源的实际情况,推断出云南省2016~2025年少数民族人力资源供需均衡情况。得出"全面二孩"政策背景下云南省人力资源供需形势较为严峻的结论。此基础上提出"全面二孩"政策背景下促进云南省人力资源实现供需平衡的策略。

This paper forecasts the human resources supply of Yunnan province from 2016 to 2025by taking the sub-factor population forecasting method against the background of the＂universal two-child policy＂,as well as the human resources demand of Yunnan province from 2016 to 2025by taking the time series forecasting method,and infers its supply-demand balance from 2016 to 2025based on the actual situations.It concludes that the supply-demand situation of Yunnan＇s human resources is serious with the implementation of the＂universal two-child policy＂.With this,it proposes several countermeasures for balancing the supply and demand of Yunnan＇s human resources against the background of the＂universal two-child policy＂.