摘要
采用分要素人口预测方法预测"全面二孩"政策背景下云南省2016~2025年人力资源供给,通过时间序列预测模型预测云南省2016~2025年人力资源需求,得出"全面二孩"政策背景下云南省2016~2025年人力资源供需均衡情况。结合云南省少数民族人力资源的实际情况,推断出云南省2016~2025年少数民族人力资源供需均衡情况。得出"全面二孩"政策背景下云南省人力资源供需形势较为严峻的结论。此基础上提出"全面二孩"政策背景下促进云南省人力资源实现供需平衡的策略。
This paper forecasts the human resources supply of Yunnan province from 2016 to 2025by taking the sub-factor population forecasting method against the background of the"universal two-child policy",as well as the human resources demand of Yunnan province from 2016 to 2025by taking the time series forecasting method,and infers its supply-demand balance from 2016 to 2025based on the actual situations.It concludes that the supply-demand situation of Yunnan's human resources is serious with the implementation of the"universal two-child policy".With this,it proposes several countermeasures for balancing the supply and demand of Yunnan's human resources against the background of the"universal two-child policy".
作者
骆华松
薛勇军
董静
LUO Hua-Song XUE Yong-Jun DONG Jing(School of Tourism and Geographical Science , Yunnan Normal University, Kunm ing 650500, China School of Economics and Management, Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500, China Yunnan Chinese Language and Culture College, Yunnan Normal University ,Kunming 650500, China)
出处
《云南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第4期42-49,共8页
Journal of Yunnan Normal University:Humanities and Social Sciences Edition
基金
云南省哲学社会科学研究基地课题"云南少数民族人口城镇化与就业问题研究"(JD2014ZD09)
"中国西南边境地区人口空间格局演化机制研究--以云南省为例"(JD2016YB08)
云南省哲学社会科学规划课题"云南少数民族人口空间形态演化特征分析研究"(XKJS201519)
"中国西南对外开放与边疆安全研究中心"云南省新型智库的阶段性成果
关键词
云南省
全面二孩
人力资源
供需预测
Yunnan
universal two-child policy
human resources
supply-demand forecast