基于FTA的PPP项目失败关键因素分析

Analysis of the key factors as the causes of the PPP project failure based on FTA

针对当前PPP项目数量增长迅速,实施效果却不理想的问题,文中从失败案例着手,归纳出导致这些案例失败的风险因素,借助聚类分析、故障树和专家研讨厅等手段对这些风险因素进行定性与定量分析,理清风险因素之间存在的逻辑关系,分析出导致项目失败的核心风险因素,并提出控制措施。研究有助于完善目前PPP项目风险分析的理论,为我国PPP项目风险管理实践提供参考。

The number of the current PPP projects is growing rapidly,but the implementation effect is not ideal.This paper starts with some failure cases,and sums up the risk factors that have led to the failure of these projects.With the help of the cluster analysis,FTA and the expert seminar,these risk factors are qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed.Then,it expounds the logical relationship between the risk factors,analyzes the core risk factors that have led to the project failure,and puts forward some control measures.This study will not only help to improve the existing PPP project risk analysis theory,but also can shed some light on the PPP project risk management in China.