地方政府社会保险基金预算的模式与挑战——基于440份公开文本资料的分析

Local Government Social Security Budgeting :Models and Problems——Based on the Analysis of 440 Text File Materials

在"全口径"预算改革的背景下,中央于2010年开始在地方推行社保基金预算,而社保制度和预算管理等诸多问题使得地方政府的预算实践困难重重。在这种情况下,中央如何对31个省级政府2000多个统筹地区的预算进行汇总和编制就成为了一个巨大的挑战。本文搜集了440份正式的政策文件、官方报道、领导讲话和会议纪要,采用内容分析法来深描和揭示了地方社保基金预算的具体模式和普遍存在的问题。文本分析表明,地方政府在编制内容和流程上均有拓展,立法审议也在加强,有些省份还采用三年滚动财政规划来进行预测。不过,它在取得成绩的同时也面临着总额控制较弱、缺乏完备的储备金政策、政策目标断裂、管理会计缺乏和报告透明度不够的问题。为了更好地对社保基金预算进行优化,需要同时在预算的技术层面和社保制度层面进行改革。

Along with the overall budget management reform,China has started to bring the social insurance income and spending into the national budget management since 2010.However,in view of many problems of social system and budget,local social security budgeting reform is very difficult.Under this situation,how the central government gathers all budget information from more than 2000 areas of 31 provinces will be challenged.Based on it,this paper collected 437 formal local documents and policies and also informal files including media reports,leader speeches and meeting summaries.I used the content analysis to code and analysis these text files.Through describing and uncovering local budgeting methods and problems in social security,we can help current social security budgeting reform.The result suggested that local governments expand their budgeting scale and reform their program,improve the legal deliberation and some provinces adopt three year rolling fiscal plan to enforce the ability of forecasting.It gets some achievements and also facing some problems,including the weak aggregate control,incomplete reserve policy,lacking policy objective,cost management accounting and reporting opacity.In order to realize better budgeting governance,we need to reform in both of budgeting technology and social security institution.