BOP战略背景下影响农机扩散的政府补贴因素分析——基于多Agent建模的仿真研究

Analysis of Governmental Subsidy Factors Influencing Agri-machinery Diffusion under the Background of BOP Strategy——Simulation Research Based on Multi-agent Modeling

与西方BOP战略不同,政府在我国企业实施BOP战略中起着重要的推动作用。本文针对小型农机,运用多Agent建模方法建立了农户和农机厂商主体的行为模型,并给出了政府主体行为下农户支付函数,通过农户主体行为动作模拟,分析了不同政策补贴因素对农机扩散影响的动态过程。结果表明:补贴标准、购机方式、补贴方式、政策持续时间、农户收入等变化对农机扩散的影响非常明显,且在农机采纳率达到一定水平之前不应撤销补贴。适当加大补贴力度或采取定比补贴、差价购机等方式更有利于农机装备采纳。另外,补贴标准对农机厂商主体决策起着一定的影响作用,提高补贴标准会促使厂商竞争加大。这一研究结论可为我国企业采取BOP战略、农机需求预测分析和政策设计提供决策支持和参考。

Unlike western BOP strategy, in China the government plays an important role in the implementation of BOP strategy. Aiming at the small agricultural machinery, this paper uses multi-agent method to establish a behavior model of farmer and manufacturer, and gives farmer payment function under the government agent behavior. The paper analyses the dynamic process of effects of different policy subsidy factors on agricultural machinery diffusion through the adoption behavior simulation of farmer agent. The results show that the im- pacts of subsidy standard, purchase and subsidy style, policy duration, household income on agricultural machinery diffusion are very obvious; the subsidy policy should not be withdrawn until the adoption rate reaches a certain level. Appropriately increasing subsidies or granting proportional subsidies or paying the price after discount is more beneficial to the adoption of agricultural machinery. In addition, the subsidy standard has certain effect on manufacturer agent decision. Improving the standard of subsidies will encourage manufacturers to strengthen competition. The conclusion of study will provide decision support and reference for Chinese enterprises to take BOP strate- gy, for demand or forecast analysis of agricultural machinery and and for policy design.