柑橘生产的要素替代关系及增长路径研究——基于主产区面板数据的实证分析

Key factor substitution and growth path of citrus production:An empirical analysis based on the panel data of main production area

为探究柑橘生产的要素替代关系及增长路径,基于我国7个主产区1997—2014年柑橘成本收益的面板数据,采用超越对数生产函数对柑橘生产要素之间的替代关系进行实证分析,在此基础上探讨我国柑橘生产的技术进步与增长路径。研究得出:劳动力和农业机械的产出弹性相对比较稳定,化肥和其他要素的产出弹性波动较大;化肥、农业机械与其他要素对劳动力的替代关系较为显著,化肥与农业机械对其他要素的替代关系较为稳定,化肥与农业机械要素之间还存在一定的互补关系;柑橘生产过程中劳动节约型技术进步明显,土地节约型技术进步也不断发展,未来柑橘生产的增长路径选择应该以节约劳动的农业机械技术导向为主,以节约土地的生物化学技术导向为辅。最后,基于研究结论得到的启示包括:根据生产要素禀赋优势来选择柑橘技术进步的发展方向;重点发展省力省工的柑橘生产机械技术;合理使用化肥、农药、农膜、无病毒苗木等土地节约型的生物化学技术。

To explore key factor substitution and growth path of citrus production based on the panel date on the costbenefit of citrus from 1997 to 2014in seven main production areas in China.An empirical analysis of the substitution relationship among the citrus production factors to investigate the technical progress and growth path of citrus production in China was conducted by using transcendental logarithmic production function.The results showed that：The output elasticity of labor force and agricultural machinery was relatively stable,and the output elasticity of chemical fertilizer and other factors was fluctuant;The substitution relationships of chemical fertilizer to labor,agricultural machinery to labor,and other factors to labor force were significant,The substitution relationships of chemical fertilizer and agricultural machinery to other factors were stable;There also existed a complementary relationship between fertilizer and agricultural machinery factors;In the process of citrus production,the labor-saving technical progress was obvious,and the land-saving technical progress is developing constantly.The future growth path of citrus production should be mainly in the direction of labor-saving agricultural machinery technology and aided in the direction of landsaving biochemical technology.In conclusion,the choice of the development direction of citrus technical progress shouldbe made bases on its endowment advantage of production factors;Focuses should be on the development of laborsaving citrus production machinery technology and reasonable application of the land-saving biochemical technology including chemical fertilizer,pesticide,plastic film,and free-virus seedling wood.