伊斯兰国在阿富汗的现状与前景

The Present Situation and Prospect of Islamic State in Afghanistan

伊斯兰国已正式在阿富汗活动,但是阿富汗塔利班反对伊斯兰国在阿富汗的扩张。伊斯兰国在阿富汗招募人员、筹措资金、发动恐怖袭击,并与塔利班展开争夺,这些活动主要依靠阿富汗和巴基斯坦的本地势力。尽管伊斯兰国在阿富汗展开了相关活动并在2015年达到高潮,但是伊拉克和叙利亚地区仍然是目前伊斯兰国活动的重点区域。此外,由于受到阿富汗塔利班和阿富汗政府军的打击,目前伊斯兰国在阿富汗的实力遭到严重削弱,活动区域基本局限于阿富汗的东部地区。未来,伊斯兰国仍将保持在阿富汗的活动,但难以有更大作为。

In January 2015, the Islamic State declared its entry into Afghanistan and declared Afghanistan and its surrounding areas as its Khorasan Province. This movement has been suffering from strong opposition from Taliban which is a competitor to Islamic State. The expansion of Islamic State in Afghanistanlargely relied on local forces inside Afghanistan and Pakistan. Despite frequent IS activities in Afghanistan which reached climax in2015, Iraq and Syria remains key areas for this organization. The current strength of Islamic State in Afghanistan has been severely weakened as a result of thepressure from Taliban and Afghan government. The Islamic State will remain active in Afghanistan in the future, but its much enhanced progress is very unlikely.