印度“废钞令”的背景、动因与前景分析

An analysis of the background, motivation and Prospect of India's demonetization

印度"废钞令"是在不确定的国际经济形势与复杂的国内宏观经济环境、国有银行主导银行体系与银行业不良资产率较高、国内政治斗争使得政策连续性和稳定性成为问题的复杂背景推行的,打击贪污腐败、逃税漏税、货币伪造与恐怖主义是莫迪政府"废钞令"的主要动因,而新税改法案获得通过、宏观经济指标良好表现为大规模"废钞"提供了有利时机。短期内,"废钞令"对印度实体经济的负面影响是相当大的。不过,长远地看,随着银行流动性的改善,银行业将会加大对实体经济的支持力度,印度经济更加具有发展潜力和增长前景。整体上,印度本次货币改革实验对国际社会反腐败、反黑金、反逃税政策的制定有重大借鉴意义,对国际货币数字化有重要试错价值,不排除其他国家有更多的跟进可能。

India's demonetization happened in an uncertain international situation and complex macroeconomic environment. Despite a negative effect in short term, demonetization in the long run will improvebank liquidity which will further support the development of Indian economy. Demonetization will have only short term impact on black money and will not have long term impact. Overall India's experiment with demonetization is an attempt to fight against corruption, black money and tax evasion practices.