浙江文化教育消费增长态势及其预期空间检测——“九五”以来20年分析与“十三五”预测

Measuring on the Growth Status and Prospective Space of Zhejiang's Cultural and Educational Consumption——Analyzing on 20 Years since the "9^(th) Five-Year Plan" Period and Forecasting on the "13^(th) Five-Year Plan" Period

基于1995-2015年相关增长,以扩大消费需求和促进城乡共享为目标,检测2015年浙江城乡文教消费需求总量应有空间:供需协调性测算1615.52亿元,消除负相关测算2525.68亿元,最佳比例值测算3106.79亿元,最小城乡比测算3121.29亿元,弥合城乡比测算3755.51亿元,城乡无差距测算5467.76亿元,而实际总量仅为1353.81亿元。测算浙江至2020年文教消费增长目标及文化产业发展空间:按1995~2015年历年均增值实际测算为第21位;2015~2020年供需协调性目标测算为第20位;消除负相关目标测算为第24位;最佳比例值目标测算为第20位;最小城乡比目标测算为第17位;弥合城乡比目标测算为第19位;城乡无差距目标测算为第18位。

Based upon the correlative growth from 1995 to 2015 and aiming at the target of extended consumption demand and advanced sharing between urban and rural areas, measuring of the “ due space” of Zhejiang’s total cultural and educational consumption demand in urban and rural areas in 2015 are as follows： 161. 552 billion RMB in the growth target valued coordinated supply- demand;252. 568 billion RMB in the growth target valued avoiding negative correlation ; 310.679 billion RMB in the growth target valued optimal proportion; 312. 129 billion RMB in the growth target val-ued lowest urban-rural ratio; 375. 551 billion RMB in the growth target valued closed urban-rural ra-tio; 546. 776 billion RMB in the growth target valued without urban-rural gap. But Zhejiang ^ s actu-al gross in 2015 is only 135. 381 billion RMB. The evaluated growth targets of cultural and educa-tional consumption and development space of cultural industry in Zhejiang to 2020 are as follows ： in the ranking of the actual growth among various provinces from 1995 to 2015, Zhejiang is the 21st in the valued average added value over the years; in the rankings of the targets distance among various provinces from 2015 to 2020, Zhejiang is the 20th in the growth target valued coordinated supply- de-mand; the 24th in the growth target valued avoiding negative correlation; the 20th in the growth tar-get valued optimal proportion; the 17th in the growth target valued lowest urban-rural ratio; the 19th in the growth target valued closed urban-rural ratio; and the 18th in the growth target valued without urban-rural gap.