极端强降水下小河流域泥石流灾害评估研究

Study on Debris Flow Disaster Assessment in Xiaohe River Basin under Extreme Heavy Rainfall

基于马尔康红苕沟流域的DEM、地貌特征、土地利用类型、土壤类型和土壤湿度程度等地理信息数据和分钟降水资料,根据SCS模型的产流-汇流原理和泥石流配方法计算模拟了2015年6月30日红苕沟暴雨-泥石流灾害规模。模拟结果表明,与泥石流实地勘查资料相比较,SCS模型的模拟精度在95%以上,说明SCS模型径流模拟和泥石流配方法是可以应用于类似红苕沟这样无降水观测资料的小河流域泥石流灾害的评估方法。应用此方法计算红苕沟极端强降水触发的泥石流总量是2015年6月30日发生泥石流总量的5倍。

Based on the DEM, geomorphic features, land use types, soil types and soil moisture of the Hongshaogou wa-tershed in Maerkan, the data of the annual precipitation and the precipitation data of 2015 were calculated according to the SCS model of runoff - confluence and debris flow June 30 Hongshao river storm - debris flow disaster scale. The simulation results show that the simulation accuracy of SCS model is more than 95% compared with that of debris flow field data, which shows that the SCS model runoff simulation and debris flow matching method can be applied to debris flow disaster assessment in the Small river watershed without rainfall observation data method. Using this method, the total debris flow triggered by the extreme heavy rainfall in Hongtaoogou is 5 times of the total debris flow occurred on 30 June, 2015.