农村劳动力转移的农产品产量和价格效应

The Agricultural Production and Price Effects of the Rural Labor Force Transfer

在胡景北(2008)理论模型基础上,通过区分绝对和相对剩余劳动力,构建了城镇化、农村劳动力转移和农产品价格关系的数理分析框架,证明了给定农业生产技术及农产品需求刚性,绝对剩余劳动力向城镇的转移并不会影响农产品产量和价格,而当农村只剩相对剩余劳动力时,则务农人口继续向城镇转移将减少农产品供给并导致农产品价格上涨。以总农产品、劳动密集型农产品对上述关系进行的经验检验验证了以上结论。

This paper analyzes the effect of rural labor transfer on the price of agricultural products in China. Based on Hu Jingbei＇s（ 2008） model,by distinguishing＂absolute＂and＂relative＂surplus labor force,we construct a mathematical model of the relationship among urbanization,transfer of rural labor and prices of agricultural products. The model demonstrates that given agricultural technology and rigid demand of agricultural products,the transfer of＂absolute surplus labor force＂to cities doesn＇t affect the agricultural production and prices while the continued transfer of＂relative surplus labor force＂leads to the decrease of agricultural supply and increase of agricultural prices. The tests made by overall agricultural production and labor-intensive agricultural products verify the above conclusion.