汇率波动与货币政策调控的互动效应分析——基于人民币国际化的视角

An Analysis of the Interaction Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Monetary Policy Regulation——Based on the Perspective of RMB Internationalization

近年人民币汇率双向波动及其与货币政策调控的互动效应已越来越明显,这给货币政策调控带来了新挑战。对人民币汇率波动和货币政策调控的双向影响机理进行理论分析,运用FAVAR模型对二者之间的影响关系进行实证研究。结果显示:利率和货币供应量对汇率波动均有影响,但利率的作用效果更强;汇率波动对利率的影响比对货币供应量的影响更大,利率和汇率之间的双向联动效应日趋紧密。鉴于此,货币政策选择应重视对汇率波动的敏感度分析,不断加强对汇率政策和利率政策的协调;调控手段应以数量型工具为主切换到以价格型工具为主。

Recently with the speeding progress of RMB internationalization,the co-movement between exchange rate of RMB and monetary policy is becoming stronger and stronger. In this article,we test the mutual effect between monetary policy and exchange rate with FAVAR model. The results show that both interest rate and money supply have impact on exchange rate fluctuations,but interest rate is more effective. Besides,the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on interest rate is greater than that of money supply,and the interaction between interest rate and exchange rate is becoming closer. In view of this,the authority should pay attention to the sensitivity analysis of exchange rate fluctuations,and constantly strengthen the coordination between exchange rate policy and interest rate policy; control means should be price-based tools instead of number-based tools.