汇率因素在中国对东盟直接投资中的作用——理论与实证研究

Research of the Role of RMB Exchange Rates in China's OFDI to ASEAN Countries

东盟国家是中国企业对外直接投资的主要目的地。为了更好地研究汇率如何影响中国对东盟的直接投资,构建了一个理论模型。研究结论为:人民币升值会增加中国对东盟的直接投资,汇率波动幅度的增大会阻碍中国对东盟的直接投资,预期汇率升值不利于市场寻求型对外直接投资。选取了东盟国家2005—2014年相关数据,运用固定效应模型和差分GMM动态面板模型进行回归分析,实证结果显示:汇率水平、预期汇率因素与理论模型预测符号一致且显著,而汇率波动的影响与模型预测一致但并不显著。

ASEAN countries are the major destinations for China＇s OFDI. In order to better understand how exchange rates affect China＇s OFDI to ASEAN,a mathematical model was constructed and we discovered that the current exchange rate level,the expected exchange rate level and the fluctuation of exchange rate had different influences on China＇s OFDI. By applying a fixed effects model and GMM regression model with related data from 2005 to 2014,we found out that exchange rate and the expected exchange rate had consistent results with theoretical model prediction and significant effects on China＇s OFDI to ASEAN countries,while the fluctuation of exchange rate is consistent with model prediction but not significantly related.