双重约束下原料奶价格波动的影响因素及其测度

Influencing factors and measurements of raw milk price fluctuation under dual restraints

针对中国奶业发展面临的双重约束,在分析原料奶价格波动的影响因素的基础上,构建VAR模型对影响中国原料奶价格波动的因素进行研究。从对原料奶价格波动的影响看,历史价格、进口替代、货币供应、生产成本和国际价格都对原料奶价格形成具有正向且长期的作用,而国内供给对原料奶价格形成存在负向的作用并逐期减弱变为正向;从对原料奶价格波动的贡献度看,价格形成的主要动力来源是历史价格、进口替代、成本因素和国际价格。因此,加强对奶业发展需求与供给趋势研判、发展适度规模经营、提高奶业生产的组织化程度、提高原料奶质量,有助于稳定原料奶价格波动,改善产业链利益分配机制。

The dairy industry in China is confronting dual constraints. Based on an analysis of influencing factors,this paper focuses on price fluctuation of raw milk in China by setting VAR Model to study those influencing factors. From the fluctuations of raw milk prices it can be found that historical price,import substitution,money supply,producing cost and international prices all have positive and longterm effects,yet the negative effect of the domestic supply of raw milk has been weakened by converting to a positive trend. From the perspective of contribution degree,the main drives of raw milk price originate from historical prices,import substitution,cost factors and international prices. Thus,more researches on supply and demand,the appropriate scale of operation,an improvement of organizational level of milk industry and product qualities may work effectively on stabilizing price fluctuations and optimizing profit distribution mechanism of the industry chain.