欧盟在巴黎气候进程中的领导力:局限性与不确定性

EU's Leadership in the Paris Climate Process:Limitations and Uncertainties

2015年12月《巴黎协定》的达成确立了全球气候治理的新体系。欧盟在《巴黎协定》签署的过程中扮演了重要角色。作为国际气候政治中的领导者,欧盟运用主场优势,通过提升政治意愿与完善谈判管理,实现了巴黎大会的预期目标。但由于整体影响力下降,欧盟在参与国际谈判时更倾向于采用联盟的手段。借助"雄心联盟",它在国际谈判中持续有效地发力,展示了雄厚的软实力。然而,欧盟在未来气候治理中的领导力还面临极大的局限性和不确定性。一方面,其内部矛盾形成了难以克服的结构性缺陷,欧盟仍无法完整发挥单一谈判方的作用;另一方面,欧盟还面临来自英国"退欧"及美国特朗普政府退出《巴黎协定》等多重挑战。

The signing of the Paris Agreement in December 2015 symbolized the establishment of a new global climate governance system,in the process of which,the EU played an important role.As a leader in international climate politics and a host of the Paris negotiations,the EU achieved its expected objectives in the Paris Summit.But due to the overall declining of its power,the EU was more inclined to draw support by building coalitions in negotiations.With the'High Ambition Coalition',the EU continued to exert influences in international negotiations and wield its soft power effectively.However,a number of limitations and uncertainties exist as to the EU’s leadership in the future climate governance.On one hand,the EU as a single negotiator has some structural flaws that seem insurmountable.On the other hand,the EU is confronted with multiple challenges like the Brexit,internal conflicts and the withdrawal of the Trump Administration from the Paris Agreement.