英国安全风险评估与危机预警机制论析

An Analysis of the UK's Security Risk Assessment and Early-Warning Mechanism of Crisis

进入21世纪后,英国面临非传统安全和传统安全相交织的挑战,受威胁程度有加剧之势。2015年,英国发布的"国家安全战略和战略防务与安全评估"报告将其面临的安全风险划分为三个层级和三类威胁。英国安全和情报机构以事前控制和预防为核心,并根据不同的威胁进行了匹配性工作。但其安全预警体制机制存在协调性与联动性不足、情报传递机制缺陷、安全评估机制不合理等问题,英国据此进行了安全预警机制改革。尽管如此,英国安全预警机制依然存在诸多问题:英国脱欧的后遗症、"情报保护主义"、经济不振和部门间的"山头主义"等都困扰着国家安全危机预警机制的运作。如何针对未来不确定性的安全环境,探索安全预警机制出路,将是英国新政府面临的难题。

In the 21st Century,the UK is facing new challenges from the interweaving of non-traditional and traditional security,which has increased the degree of severity of threat.The UK released its National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review in 2015,dividing the national security risks into three levels and three types of threats.The British security and intelligence agencies take pre-control and prevention as their core tasks and carry out corresponding jobs according to the types of the threats.Due to the problems in the UK’s early-warning systems,such as a lack of coordination,defects in the information transmission mechanism and the impertinency of security assessment mechanism,the UK undertook reforms in its early warning mechanism.Nevertheless,there are still a number of problems,such as the possible consequences of Brexit,the so-called'intelligence protectionism',economic sluggishness,and the departmentalism among government departments,which frustrate the operation of the early warning mechanism of security crisis.It will be a difficult task for the British government to explore the right way to improve the security warning mechanism in the face of the uncertain security environment in the future.