公共品供给与城乡人口流动——基于285个城市的计量检验

Urban Public Goods Supply and Urban-rural Migration Flow:An Empirical Research of 285 Cities Based on Generalized Logit Model

无论是以城市公共品供给水平差异度指数,还是以人均财政支出指标衡量的城市公共品供给水平,都对城乡人口流动的概率具有显著的正向影响。进一步研究发现,公共品供给对人口流动的正向影响存在着结构差异和地区差异。考虑到户籍管制因素后,公共品供给对人口流动仍然存在显著影响。因此,减小不同城市间的公共服务差异,尤其是医疗教育等事关民众切身福利的基本公共服务的差距,有利于引导城乡间人口流动,对优化城市布局和构建合理的城镇体系也具有重要的现实意义。

Based on generalized logit model,this paper studies the effect of urban public goods supply and service in determining urban-rural migration flow. The results show that no matter measured by difference index method or measured by fiscal expenditure,the public goods supply and service are significantly positively related w ith urban-rural migration flow probability. The different type of public goods supply has different influences on the relationship betw een public goods supply and urban-rural migration flow probability. Considering the effect of household registration,the supply of public good significantly influences the migration flow. Accordingly,the balanced development of different cities,especially giving priority to the medical health and education concerning the vital w elfare of the people,is important for proper migration. It also has realistic significance to optimize the urban design and construct the framew ork of urbanization.