广东省“十三五”期间各级医疗机构总诊疗量预测

Forecast of the total volume of medical diagnosis and treatment in health institutions in Guangdong Province during the Thirteenth-Five-Year Plan period

目的 :分析广东省"十一五"和"十二五"期间各级医疗机构总诊疗量变化,预测总诊疗量达标情况,为有效构建分级诊疗制度提供依据。方法 :收集卫生统计年鉴资料,采用Excel 2013进行诊疗量统计和对比,采用MATLAB 8.3作灰色预测模型GM(1,1),预测"十三五"期间诊疗量变化。结果 :"十一五"和"十二五"期间广东省总诊疗量、医院和基层医疗机构总诊疗量持续升高,基层医疗机构诊疗量占总诊疗量比例维持稳定,预测"十三五"期间医院和基层医疗机构诊疗量均上升,但与分级诊疗构建评价标准尚有一段距离。结论:预测"十三五"期间广东省基层医疗机构的总诊疗量未达到≥65%的比例。应该通过明确各级医疗机构的功能定位、提升基层医疗机构的服务能力、完善医疗保障政策、鼓励削减三级医院普通门诊量来提高基层医疗机构的诊疗量。

Objective： To analyze the changes of the total volume of medical diagnosis and treatment in health institutions in Guangdong Province during the Eleventh-Five-Year Plan and Twelfth-Five-Year Plan period, and provide reference for the effective construction of hierarchical medical service delivery system. Methods： Data were collected from the health statistics yearbook. The volume of diagnosis and treatment and the comparison between different levels of health institutions were done by Excel 2013. MATLAB 8.3 was used to make the grey forecasting model GM（ 1, 1 ）and forecast the changes of diagnosis and treatment volume during the Thirteenth-Five-Year Plan period. Results： In the Eleventh-Five-Year Plan and Twelfth-Five-Year Plan period, the total volume of diagnosis and treatment in Guangdong Province, the volume of hospitals and the volume of primary health institutions increased steadily. The proportion of diagnosis and treatment volume in primary health institutions remained stable. It was predicted that the volume of diagnosis and treatment in hospitals and that in primary health institutions will increase during the Thirteenth-Five-Year Plan period. However, there was still a gap between the volume and the criteria of hierarchical medical service delivery system. Conclusion： The proportion of diagnosis and treatment volume in primary health institutions was predicted to be less than 65% during the Thirteenth-Five-Year Plan period. For improvement of the diagnosis and treatment volume in primary health institutions, it is suggested to well define the function of health institutions at all levels, enhance the capability of primary health institutions, improve the medical security policy and reduce the amount of outpatient service in tertiary hospitals.