基于数值模拟的溃坝洪水风险预警管理效果评价

Effect Evaluation of Risk Warning Based on Numerical Simulation of Dam-Break Flood

洪水风险预警是溃坝风险管理的重要措施之一,通过提前预报洪水风险能够有效减少洪水灾害损失。目前,洪水风险预警研究主要集中于对预警标准、预警方法的研究上,缺乏对洪水风险预警管理效果评价的研究。针对上述问题,首先采用耦合VOF法的三维k-ε紊流模型进行溃坝洪水演进数值模拟;然后根据洪水水情信息,采用贝叶斯网络方法,推理不同预警时间下的溃坝洪水风险人口疏散率;最后提出针对溃坝洪水风险预警措施的管理效果评价方法。结合某城市水库进行溃坝洪水风险评价,通过有无预警情况下的风险人口和经济对比分析表明,非工程风险预警措施管理效果明显,该方法可为溃坝洪水风险预警管理提供技术支持和决策依据。

Dam break flood warning, one of the important measures for dam break risk management, can effectively reduce the loss of flood disaster by forecasting flood risk in advance. At present, the study of flood risk early warning is mainly fo-cused on the research of flood forecasting and early warning threshold. To improve the it , firstly, the three-dimensional standard k - s turbulence model coupled with VOF method is adopted to simulate dam-break flood. Then based on the flood information, the Bayesian network method is used for the evacuation rate of the dam-break flood risk at different warning times. Finally, the management effect evaluation method of flood risk early warning measures for dam break is put forward. And an urban dam-break case study is presented in the essay to illustrate the application of this framework in the manage-ment effect evaluation of early dam-break warning. By comparing the most-at-risk population and economy with and without warning measures, it is found that the results of non-engineering risk early warning measures are satisfying. And this meth-od can provide technical and decision-making supports for early warning management of dam-break flood risk.