房产税是否抑制了居民消费——基于沪渝改革试点区的DID分析

Does the Property Tax Inhibit the Consumption of Residents?——Based on the Analysis of the Pilot Area of Shanghai-Chongqing Reform

房产税是我国社会各界关注的热点问题,研究其施行所带来的各种经济效应具有重大的现实意义。文章以2007-2015年全国35个城市的数据为样本,利用DID模型检验了上海和重庆房产税试点对居民消费、居民生存型消费和居民发展型消费的影响。研究发现:站在居民消费视角来看,我国房产税试点中不存在明显的政策预期效应;房产税试点显著降低了试点城市的居民消费倾向和居民发展型消费支出,且对居民发展型消费的影响力度更大;对居民生存型消费也产生了一定的不利影响,但却并不显著。因此,在对房地产市场调控的同时,需要对房产税的税制设计进行优化,着力弱化其对居民消费的不利影响。

Property tax is a hot issue of concern to all sectors of our society, and it is of great practical significance to study the various economic effects brought by its implementation. Based on the data of 35 cities in China from 2007 to 2015, the double differential （DID） method is used to test the impact of Shanghai and Chongqing property tax on residents＇ consumption, residents＇ subsistence consumption and residents＇ development consumption. It is found that there is no obvious policy effect in the real estate tax in our country, and the property tax test has significantly reduced the consumption tendency of the residents in the pilot cities and the devel- opmen consumption expenditure of the residents.The impact on residential development is even greater, and sub- sistence consumption has also had a negative impact, but it is not significant. Therefore, While regulating the real estate market, the tax system design of the property tax needs to be optimized to minimize its adverse effect on the consumer.