农民工养老保险与消费分层——来自浙江的调查

Social Pension Insurance and Consumption Stratification of Migrant Workers:A Survey from Zhejiang Province

文章基于2017年1月在浙江省三地市调查的938个农民工及其家庭数据,利用均值回归和分位数回归方法,分析影响农民工家庭消费的因素,探究在不同消费层次上,农民工养老保险与家庭消费之间的关系。结果证实了农民工养老保险对家庭消费所产生的"资产替代效应";增加农民工收入固然能促进其消费,但农民工群体的异质性表现出有养老保险的高消费水平家庭具有更高的收入弹性,且受教育水平对其消费产生积极效应,而无养老保险的中低消费水平家庭则具有较强的预防性储蓄动机,且与户主的性别、年龄、婚姻均显著相关。由此得出的政策含义是通过使养老保险可转移接续,增加缴费档次并配套补贴,强化企业和农民工参保意识,以提高农民工养老保险覆盖率,增加其消费信心,走出因制度不公平等所导致的消费困境。

Based on the survey data about 938 migrant workers and their families from three cities of Zhejiang Province in January 2017, this paper analyzes the factors influencing the household-consumption stratification of migrant-worker, and the relationship between social pension insurance and household consumption, by mean regression and quantile regression. The results confirm that the social pension insurance of migrant-worker has ＂asset substitution effect＂ on household consumption. The income increase of migrant workers can promote their consumption, while the heterogeneity of migrant workers shows that there is higher income elasticity in the high-consumption households with social pension insurance, and the education level has a positive effect on their consumption. The middle- and low-consumption households without social pension insurance have a strong motive for precautionary savings, and it is significantly relevant with gender, age, marriage of the householders. Thus, the policy implication is to improve the income of migrant workers, make the social pension insurance transferred and renewed, increase the payment grade and form a complete set of subsidies, as well as strengthen the awareness of enterprises and migrant workers, in order to raise the coverage rate of social pension insurance of migrant workers, boost their consumer confidence and come out of predicament caused by unfair system, etc.