我国货币政策可信度的理论分析及基于预期引导效应的实证研究

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Chinese Monetary Policy Credibility Based on the Expectations Guidance Effect

经济主体与政策制定者之间存在相互依存的关系,经济主体可以利用可获得的信息形成具有动态反馈的预期。在实际经济运行中,经济主体的预期形成与货币政策可信度密切相关,政策的可信度越高,对经济主体预期的引导效应就越明显,货币政策调控效果就越好。随着我国经济进入新常态,对稳定和引导市场预期的要求更高,在这种背景下,不断提高货币政策的可信性和信誉度,对于引导经济主体预期,进而完善货币政策调控机制是非常有效的。该文分析货币政策可信度的主要影响因素,并基于预期引导效应,进一步分析我国货币政策的可信度。

In the actual economy operation, the formation of economic agents＇ expectations are closely related with the credibility of monetary policy, the more obvious the guiding effect on the policy. The higher the credibility of monetary expectations of economic agents and the better regulative effect of monetary policy. Under Chinese new normal economy, the continuously improvement of the credibility of monetary policy is effective in guiding the economic agents＇ expectations and perfecting the monetary policy regulation mechanism. This paper analyzes the main factors affecting the credibility of monetary policy, and the further credibility of monetary policy based on the expectations guidance effect in China.