货币供给、房地产价格与金融稳定性——基于SVAR模型的实证研究

Money Supply,Real Estate Prices and Financial Stability:Empirical Study Based on SVAR Model

该文基于我国2000年1月~2016年12月相关经济数据,通过主成分分析法构建金融稳定性指标,然后通过对货币供给、房地产价格及金融稳定性变量构建SVAR模型,分析了货币供给增加对房地产价格和金融稳定性的影响,以及房地产价格上升对金融稳定性的影响。该文的研究结论是:总的来说,货币供给增加会使房价上升,房价上升又会使金融稳定性下降,以及货币供给增加会使金融稳定性先上升后下降,但总的负效应大于正效应。这就说明,货币供给增加不仅会通过房地产市场间接使金融稳定性下降,还会直接使金融稳定性下降。最后该文认为,我国现阶段应采取稳健的货币政策及严控房价过快上涨政策等,不仅有利于管控房价水平,也有利于金融系统的稳定性。

Based on the China＇s relevant economic data from January 2000 to December 2016, the paper constructs the financial stability index by principal component analysis method. Through the construction of SVAR model of money supply, real estate price and financial stability, this paper then analyzes the impact of the increase of money supply on real estate prices and financial stability, and the impact of rising real estate prices on financial stability. There is the conclusion that, in general, the increase of money supply increases real estate prices, rising real estate prices makes financial stability decline, and increase of money supply makes financial stability rise at first and then decline, but the total negative effect is greater than the positive effect. The reults shows that taking the prudent monetary policy and the policies of curbing real estate prices boosting in China is conducive to the control over real estate prices and the stability of the financial system.