上海合作组织扩员后的发展战略及中国的作为——基于SWOT方法的分析视角

Shanghai Cooperation Organization Post Membership Expansion:A SWOT Analysis of Development Strategy and China's Role

上海合作组织扩员后的发展战略应作为指引其未来走向的规划,这一规划对于增强其制度引领能力、推进安全与经济合作、参与全球治理具有关键作用。SWOT模型为分析上海合作组织扩员后的发展战略提供了适宜的方法。通过分析发现,上海合作组织扩员后可以采取劣势—机会战略,即借助有利的外部环境,弥补自身的劣势,实现组织更为良性的发展。随着印度与巴基斯坦的加入,上海合作组织实现了由传统的陆地型区域组织向海陆兼备型区域组织的转变,这为该地区国家的发展战略与中国提出的"一带一路"倡议的对接创造了条件。具体而言,中国应借助中俄印三国互动机制,深化能源、经济和安全领域的合作,缓解因扩员对上海合作组织造成的冲击;同时,以"一带一盟"战略对接为切入点,将合作成果惠及中亚及周边地区,并将上海合作组织打造成丝绸之路经济带与中巴经济走廊、孟中印缅经济走廊对接与合作的中枢。

The development strategy of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO)in the wake of its membership expansion should be the roadmap for the body’s future direction.This roadmap will play a critical role in terms of enhancing its institutional leadership capacity,advancing security and economic cooperation,and furthering participation in global governance.SWOT analysis provides a suitable means of assessing the SCO’s development strategy following its membership expansion.Through such analysis it is identified that in the post-expansion phase,the SCO has adopted an internal disadvantage-external opportunity strategy,which refers to its strategic usage of the external environment to compensate for its internal shortcomings.This has helped the organization to develop in a healthy direction.China should leverage the tri-partite communication mechanisms the body creates along with Russia and India to deepen cooperation in the areas of energy,commerce and security.This will help to address the shock brought to the SCO by its expansion,while also extending positive benefits from the cooperation to Central Asia and other peripheral states through building out a'One Belt One Alliance'strategy.