中美“管控”美对台军售有效性的评估与分析

An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Sino-U.S. “Security Management” over American Arms Sales to Taiwan

美国对台军售是美国对华战略的重要组成部分,是美国实施对华"对冲"战略的重要手段之一。文章指出,美国不同时期的对台军售与当时的中美关系呈现一种反向相关,对台军售政策典型地体现出中美关系的"两面性"特质。美国对台军售问题虽是不定期引发中美关系震荡的"顽疾",但至今未引爆两国关系。数十年来,中美在该问题上达成了某种程度的默契,并形成了某种程序化的沟通机制,实现了两国对该问题的有效"管控"。文章旨在解读中美两国如何对美国对台军售问题进行有效"管控"。两国在该议题上达成的默契表现在:美国不向台湾地区出售敏感武器是其执行对台军售政策时遵循的隐性原则;中国大陆则对有限的、不突破其"红线"的军售行为不做出过激反应,采取务实手法处理。两国政府高层在军售前后形成的程序化的沟通和修补措施,则为实现有效"管控"提供了机制化保障。

America’s arms sales to Taiwan represents an important part of its overall hedging strategy vis-à-vis China.This article points out that there is an inverse relationship between America’s arms sales and the state of U.S.-China relations at any particular point in time.Over several decades,the U.S.and China have come to a tacit agreement on this issue,and have also developed relevant and regularized mechanisms for communications,achieving an effective level of'control'over the impacts of arms sales on relations between the two states.The implicit understanding reached between the U.S.and China with respect to arms sales to Taiwan is manifested through the following:in implementing its arms sales policy towards Taiwan,the U.S.follows an unwritten rule of no sales of sensitive arms;China's Mainland does not react overly assertively in response to limited arms sales that do not cross its redline,instead handling such matters pragmatically;the two governments maintain regularized high communications channels and address any potential damage to their relations before and after arms sales take place.