福建平潭岛生态安全动态评价及驱动力分析

Dynamic assessment and driving force analysis of ecological security in Pingtan,China

为了促进平潭岛合理开发建设与生态环境协调发展,分别选取平潭岛快速城镇化开发初期2005—2011年的自然环境与社会经济指标数据进行生态安全评价与分析,并选取尚未进行大规模开发的2001年作为生态状态基础年份进行对比。根据国内外评价指标体系的研究成果与平潭岛实际情况,筛选了海岸带与城市生态安全评价的70个因子组成指标体系,建立驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)模型,采用综合指数法评价了平潭岛的生态安全状况,发现平潭岛的生态安全指数总体呈上升趋势,达到良好级别;采用主成分分析法与通径分析法探讨可能影响平潭岛生态安全动态变化的因子,进行驱动力分析发现驱动力因子、响应因子以及状态因子决定了平潭岛生态安全状况;通过趋势预测发现平潭岛未来10 a生态环境持续优化,从良好状态进入生态安全程度较高的理想状态。重点研究平潭岛未进入实验区之前的生态安全状况,进入实验区建设之后的生态状况由于时间较短,数据并未实时准确获取。

In order to promote the harmonious development of Pingtan Island, selecting the natural and social economic indicators during the initial stage of rapid urbanization from 2005 to 2011 in Pingtan Island to conduct quantitative evaluation and analysis of ecological security.And the comparison was selected in 2001, which was not large-scale development.According to the domestic and overseas research results of evaluation index system and the actual situation of Pingtan Island, the index system constitute of the 70 factors of coastal zone and urban ecological security assessment were screen out and DPSIR model was established, the ecological security status of Pingtan Island was evaluated by the comprehensive index method.The ecological security status of Pingtan Island was increase in general and achieved good level.Principal component analysis and path analysis driving force analysis was carried out to discuss the factors that may affect the dynamic change of ecological security in Pingtan Island, suggesting driving force factor, state factor and response factor determine the ecological security status of Pingtan Island.The ecological environment would keep sustainable optimization and get into a higher ideal state from current stage by trend prediction in Pingtan Island in the next 10 a.This paper focused on the ecological security of Pingtan Island before entering the experimentation area stage, ecological situation data is not timely and accurate access as the construction was short after entering the experimentation area stage, the further study needs to continue.