汶川地震、芦山地震对灾民影响差异性比较研究

The Research on the Variability of Influence to Earthquake Victims:Examples from Wenchuan Earthquake and Lushan Earthquake

分析不同因素对灾情影响的差异性是降低地震影响的重要途径。根据汶川地震和芦山地震重灾区抽样调查数据,基于自然灾害系统理论,从受灾居民微观视角采用方差分析法从人身、财产、就业、心理方面分析地震灾情的差异性,用多元线性回归分析方法探讨承灾体脆弱性对灾情的影响作用。研究发现,地震规模强弱会对灾民人身影响造成较大差异,对财产、就业等影响无显著差异;不同地震规模会导致不同地区、年龄、家庭人数、受教育程度对地震灾情显著性不同,而债务对地震灾情均具有显著性影响。

The prerequisite of reducing the impact of earthquake is to identify the influential factors, which are determined by the analysis of the different impact made by different influential factors. By using questionnaire survey data collected from approximately 2150 disaster-affected population interviews in the gravest disaster areas of Wenchuan and Lushan disaster area, we carry on a comparative analysis of two typical earthquake cases in Wen- chuan and Lushan. We study the difference of earthquake hazards from personal safety, property, employment （income） and psychology based on the perspective of disaster-affected population and the theory of natural disaster system. The effects of vulnerability of hazard factors and hazard-bearing bodies in natural disaster on amplification and reduction of disaster impacts are also analyzed. The result shows that the strength of the hazard factors will have a significant impact on the size of personal injury. And there exits significance difference between disaster-affected population of different counties or different allocation places or different ages and family size, disaster-affected groups with different education levels and debts. Instead. the relationship between hazards and debts is significant.