基于洪水风险图的避洪转移分析方法研究

Flood Evacuation Analysis Study Based on Flood Risk Map

避洪转移作为常见的非工程措施,在国内外洪灾应急减灾中发挥了巨大的作用。为更好的发挥洪水风险图的作用并探索其在应用中存在的问题,参考洪水风险图编制导则(SL 483-2010)及洪水风险图示例,将洪水风险图与洪泛区现状结合起来,对洪水影响区域的转移需求;安置点(包括安置点需求、合理性、容量等)和安置点分配及转移起点到安置点之间多对多的最佳转移路径优选等关键问题提出了相应的分析方法。以沂河左岸朱家庙50年一遇溃堤洪水风险图为例,验证了分析方法的合理性和可行性。

Flood disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in China, the losses caused by flood in- crease with the economic development and urbanization. Evacuation, as a non-engineering measure, has been proved to be an effective way to reduce the damages caused by flooding in many cases, in order to have flood hazard map to play an active roles and also to find out the difficulties in its usage, an analysis method of flood evacuation with a reference of Flood Hazard Mapping Guide （SL 483-2010） , was proposed based on the flood hazard map and the environment of the inundation area. The method proposed consists of the analyzing on the： 1 ） evacuation needs; 2） available shelter （including shelter suitability and capacity, as well as shelter demands） and 3 ） the lo- cations of shelters and the optimization of evacuation routes. To verify the rationality and feasibility of the proposed method, a case study was carried out according to the Zhu Jia Miao hazard-map which resulted by the dike break at the left bank of Yi river when a 50 year round flood happen, results of the study testified the proposed method and it can provide a certain guidance and reference for the flood evacuation and emergency planning, as well as the im- plementation of evacuation during a real time flooding process, further more this paper has give a actual direct of fulfilling the flood hazard map and regional planning.